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| EDL #20 IRC: #EDL | Demos: http://demos.q2players.org
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Div1
Final game
 purri -  Damiah
Bronze game
 Assasin - Ibogine
Div2
Final game
 Optimus - ...VINT...
Bronze game
kadz - tomejek
Predictions for Div1 final - click More & Comments
Once upon a time there was a big bang and the universe was born. Years went by and nothing happened, not before year 1998 A.D. when John Carmac and pals released a superb game called Quake 2. Now we live in year 2007 it is again the time to play the final of the European Duel League. The first edition was conquered by Purri, or Puzzi, which sounds more l33t 3lit3. On the second and the third season we had the same winner: Damiah the magnificient. The fourth season almost fell in the hands of the Damiah again, but there was just a one man who had the power to say "nej you naab, I win". That man was Provi the sausage. Now on this fifth season the sausage did not participate to defend his crown and thefore we have the same two old farts fighting for the win, again. The winner will be decided between the Purifier and the Damiah. What should we others expect to see as these masters unleash their demons upon each other? Lets predict.
Like last season, I don't want to say that "Damiah wins 3:0" or "Purri takes the title with 3:1 win". I leave those predictions for you and just concentrate on the odds for winning each map and what maps I think the players will choose. Lets take a look at the rules and what maps we have to choose from.
The rules for this final are, that the winner will be the person who wins most maps out of 5. That means that the first player to win 3 maps is our champion. Both of the players choose 2 maps as their home maps and the players start with the homemap of the person who happens to be the hometeam, in this case Purri the l33t 3lit3. The game may end after 3 first maps, but if it does not, then they will play the 4th map and if the game is still undecided, namely 2:2, 5th map must be played. The fifth map will be decided after map kicking, where the person who has most frags after the 4 played maps can decide which player starts kicking the maps. The last map remaining after the mapkicking will be then played to decide for once and for all, who will be the champion.
There are 11 maps this season and they are:
q2rdm1, q2rdm2, q2rdm7
q2dm1, q2dm3
q2duel1, q2duel5
ztn2dm2, ztn2dm3
match1 and ptrip.
So what maps should we expect to see played and or what maps we can expect not to see played in the final? In my opinion the maps we are not going to see played are q2duel1(aeroq2), q2rdm1, q2rdm7, ztn2dm2. Neither one of the players like the q2duel1, so I expect that it won't be picked by either one of the players. Q2rdm1 is too new map for both of them, so I doubt they will have the courage to pick it. Q2rdm7 is more Damiahs map than it is Purris, but I doubt that Damiah will pick it because it can be really random sometimes with the spawns. Ztn2dm2 is not Damiahs favourite by any standards and he definately does not want to play it, but I don't think Purri wants to pick it either as he has some more stronger maps for his style. This means that we have just 7 maps where we need to choose 4 from. Without more hold-up, I will predict that Damiah chooses q2rdm2 and ptrip when Purri will take q2dm3 and/or q2dm1/match1.
The reason Purri chooses q2dm3 is because he thinks he is unbeatable there. He is close to that, but not quite there yet. Damiah is maybe the one person who can steal this map from Purris hands, but it means that he needs to play it really, really, really well. Purri has the advantage of knowing that he gets to play both of his home maps in any case, so it might be that his first map will be q2dm1 or match1. Q2dm1 is an easy map to start playing and it might be a map where both of the players can "break the ice". However q2dm1 is so well known by both of the players and recalling that last time these two players met, Damiah was the one who came out on top after it. This is the reason why Purri can choose to play match1 instead. Match1 is a map where he has most clear upper hand over Damiah. If he does not want to risk anything, he will choose match1 and propably win it as well. My odds for possible "Purri maps" are 60:40 on q2dm3, 60:40 on match1 and 50/50 on q2dm1.
Damiah who comes to this final as a favourite for many, has some strong cards in his hand. He has been the dominant player on q2rdm2 for a long time now and I do not see any reason why he would not pick it versus Purri. He will definately take it and he has a high propability to win it as well. However a good spawn for Purri in the start and a bot-like railing can turn this map around in Purris favour.
The second map that Damiah will pick is in my opinion ptrip. Damiah has developed his playing on this map a huge amount and he is maybe the most annoying player to play against because he can spawnrape you until you pray you would have never born. The spawnrape that Damiah can do is something that can turn this map in his favour, after he just gets his first frag. Even that Purri is not a player to take lightly here, Damiah is still the favourite. The odds are: q2rdm2: 57/43 for Damiah, ptrip: 60/40 for Damiah.
One of the key questions is, can either of the players steal a map from the opponent? If this happens, then the player who did it will be really close to win the whole game. Any map can be stolen with the skills of both of the players, but it might take some luck. Just one nice spawn in a certain spot at a certain time can be a deciding factor between these two players. The game might be over after the home maps are played, but if it is not, we get to witness the fifth and the last map. Player who has won in the frags has a slight advantage, because if he decides that the opponent must start kicking the maps, he has the right to choose from the last two maps left. If we get to see the mapkicking after 2:2 score, I think we will have ztn2dm3 as the last map to be played.
Ztn2dm3 is a map where both of the players are strong and which they both enjoy playing. If favours the one who has the better aim that day, so it also might be dropped by a player who does not trust in his aim. If this is to happen, the second possibility for the last map is q2duel5. Damiah proved his skills there by winning Assasin on his semifinal game, but it is also a map where Purri has shown some nice games in past. These maps are extremely hard to predict, but I would think that ztn2dm3 favours the aim-machine Purri just a tiny bit, maybe 52/48. Q2duel5 turns in my eyes in favour of Damiah by just a little bit more, 55/45.
If however one of the maps not predicted so far will be played, lets see my odds for them as well:
q2rdm1: 60/40 for Purri. Reason: Damiah did not play it too well when I last saw him playing it and Purri on the other hand played it really well.
q2rdm7: 60/40 for Damiah. Reason: Damiah has played it a lot more than Purri has and I think Purri does not like playing it too much.
ztn2dm2: 60/40 for Purri: Reason: Damiah hates the map and Purri is really strong in here.
q2duel1: 50/50. Reason: I have no clue why, I have never seen either one of them playing in here (seriously).
As always, these are my predictions which are often incorrect BS, so do not take them too seriously. Predict yourself or just wait for the final to be played and answer all your questions. In any case I expect the final to be nice game between these two heroes, a thing to really look forward to.
Good luck both!
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